Each week for six months, three to five national and battleground state polls will be issued. As a numbers junkie and data nerd, I'll attempt to take every result with a grain of salt. Patterns lasting longer than two surveys will be noted.
Why? Because “double-haters”—those who despise both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump—and unenthusiastic partisans will decide this election. History and our own lives suggest the polls may not alter until the last minute.
Every high school or college student remembers a long paper they hated yet had to read to pass. Rarely were those papers finished early.
Double-haters in this election shouldn't vote early. One of 2024's major polling challenges will be determining these people' preferences. Age, marital status, and geography may affect their vote. Pollsters predict this group will stay undecided until October.
Double-haters have many reasons to wait if undecided. Some may desire to emulate Trump's struggles. On the trail, they may test Biden. Maybe they're waiting for Trump's running mate.
They differ from double-haters in that they have long supported one side but are indifferent in their 2024 candidate. Young progressives or socially moderate financial conservatives. These voters are older centrists who were socially liberal but felt left out for not being progressive.
Remember not to overreact to poll trends between now and October. The most politically volatile voters are important. The more fickle you are, the more unpredictable your voting and results.
After my “pay less attention to the horse race polls until October” warning, I predict a more decisive presidential result than in years, which the political world is underestimating.
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